1
Hardwel
2yo Colt · 9-2
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du President Jl Hiss-prix Honneur Aux Pompiers Et Aux Benevoles Maiden Stakes · 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength81%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |