1
Aquitain
4yo Gelding · 9-7
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau De Chantegrive Handicap · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-02 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 19/01/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |
| 02/02/2026 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 08/05/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 03/06/2026 | 14th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 05/07/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |