10
Gran Habano
4yo Gelding · 8-7
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau De Chantegrive Handicap · 7f 209y
#10
Rank
Odds
1/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Compiegne | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-20 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 69% | +0.17 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 20/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 24/02/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 21% | -0.34 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 1/2 | 97% | 25% | -0.72 |