4
Tornilla
5yo Filly · 9-3
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau De Chantegrive Handicap · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 53% | +0.06 |
| 16/05/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 02/06/2025 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 26/06/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 79% | +0.63 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |