3
Wellington Premier
4yo Colt · 9-4
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau De Chantegrive Handicap · 7f 209y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mont De Marsan | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Pau | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Toulouse | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/06/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 08/09/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 30/11/2025 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/02/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 27/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 47% | -0.01 |