1
Angel Charly
6yo Mare · 9-6
La Teste De Buch · Prix Dider Soubagne Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Pau | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Pau | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Pau | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Pau | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-16 | Pau | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/10/2025 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 36% | -0.49 |
| 23/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 16/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 73% | -0.10 |
| 08/02/2026 | 13th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 23/02/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.09 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.08 |