3
Aryvesan
4yo Filly · 9-5
La Teste De Buch · Prix Dider Soubagne Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#10
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Chantilly | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 07/08/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.59 |
| 03/03/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 01/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 03/06/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |