11
Becquanon
10yo Gelding · 8-7
La Teste De Buch · Prix Dider Soubagne Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 10.2 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-02 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-05-16 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-03-28 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-02-18 | Pau | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-01-19 | Pau | BHA48 | −1 | ||
| 2024-12-21 | Pau | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength62%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 18/09/2024 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 13/10/2024 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 29/11/2024 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/12/2024 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 18/02/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 28/03/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/05/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 47% | -0.01 |
| 02/06/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |