11
Don Nicolas
4yo Colt · 8-13
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau D'arche - Sauternes, Grand Cru Classe 1855 Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#12
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Toulouse | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |