3
Kirby
5yo Gelding · 9-5
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau D'arche - Sauternes, Grand Cru Classe 1855 Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Dax | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Dax | ? | 13th | 17th | −4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 19/01/2026 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 27% | -0.60 |
| 23/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.31 |
| 10/03/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 01/04/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 27/04/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 18/05/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |