10
Lady Darka
5yo Filly · 9-1
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau D'arche - Sauternes, Grand Cru Classe 1855 Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Dax | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Pau | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Pau | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Pau | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength90%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 62% | -0.07 |
| 04/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 28/11/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 09/01/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 20/02/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 21/03/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 62% | -0.07 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |