7
Malicia
4yo Filly · 9-4
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau D'arche - Sauternes, Grand Cru Classe 1855 Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Pau | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Pau | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Pau | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Pau | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Marseille | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 16/06/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.28 |
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 55% | -0.19 |
| 12/11/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 28/11/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 02/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 08/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 58% | +0.06 |