9
Violin
4yo Filly · 9-4
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau D'arche - Sauternes, Grand Cru Classe 1855 Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Dax | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-02 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 23/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 16/12/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 19/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 23/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 09/06/2026 | 13th | 15/2 | 61% | 8% | -0.53 |
| 08/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |