4
Bustin Up
7yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 79
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2024 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 26/05/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 16/06/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 09/07/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 21/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 06/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 14% | -0.74 |