5
Citizen
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength15%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 17/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 09/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 22/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 12/01/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 02/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |