8

Legal Titan

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

76%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength74%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mountaineer 26/11/2024 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/11/2024 · OR 82 par26/11C5OR 82C8 @ Turfway Park 06/12/2024 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 79 · 6f110y Fas 118 · below its mark06/12/2024 · OR 79 parC8 @ Mountaineer 23/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 7f Fm 120 · below its mark23/07/2025 · OR 67 par23/07C8OR 67C5 @ Mountaineer 12/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 72 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2025 · OR 72 parC8 @ Mountaineer 28/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 83 · 7f110y Fm 123 · below its mark28/08/2025 · OR 83 par28/08C8OR 83C5 @ Mountaineer 08/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 79 · 1m Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 79 parC8 @ Mountaineer 17/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 81 · 7f110y Fm 120 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 81 par17/06C8OR 81C8 @ Mountaineer 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 76 · 7f Fm 124 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Mountaineer 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 78 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 78 par28/07C8OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Mountaineer?2nd2nd0
2026-07-13Mountaineer?3rd3rd0
2026-06-17Mountaineer?7th7th0
2025-09-08Mountaineer?3rd0th+3
2025-08-28Mountaineer?6th6th0
2025-08-12Mountaineer?1st-2th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1112/0817/0628/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength93%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/11/20246th10/147%17%-0.31
06/12/202412th20/10%0%0.00
23/07/20252nd2/189%88%-0.02
12/08/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
28/08/20256th8/158%38%-0.20
08/09/20253rd20/10%75%+0.75
17/06/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
13/07/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
28/07/20262nd5/174%67%-0.07