9
Light Fury
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 52
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength9%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 70% | -0.20 |
| 27/12/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 16/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |