As Lucky
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 76
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-08-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 07/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 28/07/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/08/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 27/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 23/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |