Lady Virago

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 70

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: -0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-13	Woodbine	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-04-18	Woodbine	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-03-18	Turfway Park	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-01-14	Mahoning Valley	?	8th	7th	+1	2.6
2026-01-02	Mahoning Valley	?	2nd	1st	+1	8.6
2025-11-22	Churchill Downs	?	5th	7th	−2	2.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 14

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength70%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/06/2025	6th	10/1	47%	17%	-0.31
28/09/2025	1st	11/8	93%	100%	+0.07
22/11/2025	5th	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33
02/01/2026	2nd	6/1	68%	75%	+0.07
14/01/2026	8th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26
18/03/2026	1st	20/1	0%	100%	+1.00
18/04/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	75%	+0.59
13/06/2026	7th	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33