2
Lu's Redemption
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 83
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 11/12/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |