6
Machen Reigns
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 51
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |
| 14/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |