10
Never So Lucky
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 48
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#14
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-12-19 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-26 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-14 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 31/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |