IvyArcIvyArc
12

New Age Bad Girl

7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 83

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/10

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mountaineer 13/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 73 · 5f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2025 · OR 73 par13/05C5OR 73C5 @ Mountaineer 08/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 70 · 7f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 70 parC5 @ Mountaineer 29/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 68 · 7f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 68 par29/06C5OR 68C6 @ Mountaineer 03/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 72 · 7f Fm 120 · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 72 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 22/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 78 par22/08C5OR 78C6 @ Mountaineer 03/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 80 · 7f110y Fm 120 · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 80 parC8 @ Mountaineer 17/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 7f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 78 par17/09C8OR 78C8 @ Mountaineer 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 78 · 7f Fm 120 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Mountaineer 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 79 · 7f Fm 124 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 79 par15/07C8OR 79projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Mountaineer?1st3rd−2
2026-06-21Mountaineer?3rd5th−2
2025-09-17Mountaineer?1st3rd−2
2025-09-03Mountaineer?4th4th0
2025-08-22Colonial Downs?9th8th+1
2025-08-03Mountaineer?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/053/0817/0915/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength91%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/05/20253rd13/266%71%+0.06
08/06/20253rd9/488%60%-0.28
29/06/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
03/08/20254th5/174%57%-0.17
22/08/20259th16/116%0%-0.16
03/09/20254th4/179%63%-0.16
17/09/20251st4/1198%100%+0.02
21/06/20263rd11/486%78%-0.08
15/07/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06