1
New Ways To Dream
8yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 70
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-09-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 14/07/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 19/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 15/09/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |