3
Smiles For David
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 56
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-12-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength23%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/08/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 27/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 08/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |