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5

Zen Nation

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 84

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mountaineer 18/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 73 · 5f110y Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/08/2025 · OR 73 par18/08C5OR 73C6 @ Mountaineer 09/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 121 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 75 parC6 @ Mountaineer 22/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 6f 118 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 81 par22/09C6OR 81C6 @ Mountaineer 01/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 81 · 6f 121 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 81 parC5 @ Mountaineer 15/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 84 · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 84 par15/10C5OR 84C5 @ Mountaineer 30/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 84 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 84 parC5 @ Mountaineer 12/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 5f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/11/2025 · OR 82 par12/11C5OR 82C5 @ Mountaineer 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 85 parC7 @ Mountaineer 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 82 par15/07C7OR 82projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Mountaineer?4th5th−1
2026-05-18Mountaineer?1st0th+1
2025-11-12Mountaineer?1st0th+1
2025-10-30Mountaineer?3rd2nd+1
2025-10-15Mountaineer?1st0th+1
2025-10-01Mountaineer?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/081/1012/1115/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/08/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
09/09/20252nd4/179%83%+0.04
22/09/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
01/10/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
15/10/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
30/10/20253rd10/382%67%-0.16
12/11/20251st8/1597%100%+0.03
18/05/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
15/07/20264th9/153%0%-0.53