5
Jazz With Denis
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 82
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-12-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-11-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-10-10 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2024 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/08/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/09/2024 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 10/10/2024 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 03/11/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/11/2024 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 21/11/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 03/12/2024 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |