Marsala Monarch
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 62
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2023-11-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2023-11-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2022 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 19/09/2023 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 11/10/2023 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/11/2023 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 08/11/2023 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |