10
Maxwell Esquire
9yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 79
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/11/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 14% | -0.74 |
| 19/11/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 17/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |