2
Old Flag
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 91
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 25/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |