Poppy's Pride
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 90
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 05/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 17/02/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 16/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |