Uncle Truly
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 91
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 56% | -0.27 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |