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8

Valentine Bug

9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 88

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength43%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Mountaineer 09/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 102 · 7f110y Gd 120 · beat its mark09/07/2025 · OR 102 par9/07C8OR 102C6 @ Mountaineer 03/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 100 · 7f Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/08/2025 · OR 100 parC6 @ Mountaineer 03/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 104 · 7f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 104 par3/09C6OR 104C7 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 102 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 102 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 98 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 98 par29/09C6OR 98C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 08/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 99 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 99 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 03/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 97 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark03/11/2025 · OR 97 par3/11C8OR 97C8 @ Mountaineer 07/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 96 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 96 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 90 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 90 par17/06C6OR 90projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-17Presque Isle Downs?3rd1st+2
2026-06-07Mountaineer?7th7th0
2025-11-03Mahoning Valley?5th5th0
2025-10-08Presque Isle Downs?6th4th+2
2025-09-29Presque Isle Downs?1st-1th+2
2025-09-22Presque Isle Downs?3rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0722/093/1117/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
03/08/20252nd5/287%80%-0.07
03/09/20254th11/486%57%-0.28
22/09/20253rd8/158%50%-0.08
29/09/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
08/10/20256th15/890%0%-0.90
03/11/20255th6/168%20%-0.48
07/06/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
17/06/20263rd12/137%50%+0.13