Chilling Hassle

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 78

Penn National · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

46%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-26	Penn National	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-06-10	Penn National	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-05-01	Penn National	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-04-08	Penn National	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 5

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▼

Strength33%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/04/2026	1st	5/2	87%	100%	+0.13
01/05/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	60%	+0.23
10/06/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	60%	-0.22
26/06/2026	4th	7/1	63%	50%	-0.13