Rip My Heart
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 57
Penn National · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-03-19 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 01/03/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 23/04/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 08/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 21/02/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 11/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |