Paddy'sheartofgold

5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 47

Penn National · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

49%

Place Prob

38%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-19	Penn National	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-08-21	Penn National	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2025-07-10	Penn National	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 9

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength28%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/07/2025	6th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
21/08/2025	6th	5/1	74%	0%	-0.74
19/06/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	33%	-0.38