6
Smokin Hot Wife
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 56
Penn National · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2024 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 30/11/2024 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 27/12/2024 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 08/08/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 15/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |