2
Big Hawk
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 54
Penn National · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 14/02/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |