6
Black Jack Shellac
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 48
Penn National · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |