5
Bourbon Time
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 49
Penn National · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-17 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength33%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 17/07/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 06/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 01/10/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |