4
Crown Apple
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 45
Penn National · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |