5
Marlas Dream
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 61
Penn National · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 33% | -0.62 |