7
The Pug
6yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 45
Pontefract · Honda Wakefield Super-N Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 2f 5y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 6 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-15 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Catterick | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 12/01/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 09/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 31/03/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 11/05/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |