2
Alessia Fernanda
6yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 72
Pontefract · RIU Hotels And Resorts Ladies Day Veterans' Handicap · 1m 6y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catterick | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 18/09/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 03/10/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 02/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |