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Garden Oasis

11yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 72

Pontefract · RIU Hotels And Resorts Ladies Day Veterans' Handicap · 1m 6y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed this race 12 months ago. Without a win so far this season but placed on 4 occasions, returning to form when headed only near the line in 7-runner contest at Ripon 18 days ago. Can make another bold bid with regular cheekpieces replacing the blinkers he wore last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Nottingham 08/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 79 · 1m75y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 79 par8/104OR 794 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 77 · 1m GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 75 · 1m6y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 75 par29/044OR 755 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 75 · 1m1f170y Gd 135 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 1m GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 75 par20/054OR 753 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m1f170y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 74 · 1m Goo 140 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 74 par15/065OR 744 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m6y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 72 · 1m Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 72 par18/074OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Ripon42nd1st+1
2026-06-29Pontefract44th3rd+1
2026-06-15Wetherby55th5th0
2026-05-28Ripon38th6th+2
2026-05-20Ayr43rd2nd+1
2026-05-08Ripon53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/108/0515/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/10/20259th25/10%20%+0.20
16/04/20267th22/10%14%+0.14
29/04/20262nd66/10%88%+0.88
08/05/20263rd11/271%82%+0.11
20/05/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64
28/05/20268th16/116%22%+0.06
15/06/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
29/06/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
18/07/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01