6
Soames Forsyte
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 63
Pontefract · RIU Hotels And Resorts Ladies Day Veterans' Handicap · 1m 6y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Southwell | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 02/01/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 10/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 07/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |