8
Bibendum
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 60
Pontefract · FBS Chartered Accountants Chaplins Club Handicap · 5f 3y
#10
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Leicester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Doncaster | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 54% | -0.29 |
| 27/11/2025 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 02/01/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 10% | -0.64 |
| 20/01/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 06/06/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |