5
Great
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65
Pontefract · FBS Chartered Accountants Chaplins Club Handicap · 5f 3y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ayr | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 9% | -0.33 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |