7
Riffa Spirit
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 66
Pontefract · FBS Chartered Accountants Chaplins Club Handicap · 5f 3y
#7
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Redcar | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Musselburgh | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength14%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 23/09/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 25/05/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |