4
Sam's Xpress
6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66
Pontefract · FBS Chartered Accountants Chaplins Club Handicap · 5f 3y
#9
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 22/12/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/12/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 09/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 20/03/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |